I-Dominance of China in Neodymium Magnet Production: Ukunika Amandla Ikusasa, Ukubumba I-Global Dynamics

Kusukela kuma-smartphones kanye nezimoto zikagesi (EVs) kuya kuma-wind turbines namarobhothi athuthukile, omazibuthe be-neodymium (NdFeB) bangamandla angabonakali aqhuba inguquko yesimanje yobuchwepheshe. Lawa mamagnethi anomphela aqine kakhulu, akhiwe ngezinto ezingavamile zomhlaba njenge-neodymium, i-praseodymium, ne-dysprosium, abalulekile kumandla aluhlaza nezimboni zobuchwepheshe obuphezulu. Nokho, isizwe esisodwa silawula kakhulu ukukhiqizwa kwazo:China.

Le bhulogi ingena ekutheni i-China yafika kanjani ekubuseni ukukhiqizwa kukazibuthe we-neodymium, imiphumela yezombangazwe nezomnotho yalokhu kubusa, kanye nokuthi kusho ukuthini ekuphusheni komhlaba wonke okubheke ekusimameni.

 

I-China Stranglehold ku-NdFeB Supply Chain

I-China ilandisa ngaphezulu90%wezimayini zomhlaba eziyivelakancane emhlabeni wonke, ama-85% okucwengisiswa komhlaba okungavamile, kanye nama-92% wokukhiqizwa kukazibuthe we-neodymium. Lokhu kuhlanganiswa okuqondile kunikeza ukulawula okungenakuqhathaniswa esisetshenziswa esibalulekile:

Izimoto zikagesi:Injini ngayinye ye-EV isebenzisa i-1–2 kg yamazibuthe e-NdFeB.

Amandla omoya:Iturbine eyodwa engu-3MW idinga ama-600 kg alawa mamagnethi.

Izinhlelo Zokuvikela:Amasistimu okuqondisa, ama-drones, ne-radar kuncike ekunembeni kwakho.

Nakuba amadiphozithi ezinto ezingavamile emhlabeni ekhona e-US, Australia, naseMyanmar, ukubusa kweShayina akuveli kusayensi yokwakheka komhlaba kuphela kodwa amashumi eminyaka okwenziwa kwenqubomgomo yamacebo kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali kwezimboni.

 

I-China Yakha Kanjani I-Monopoly Yayo

1. I-Playbook yawo-1990: “Ukulahla” Ukuze Uthwebule Izimakethe
Ngawo-1990, i-China yagcwala izimakethe zomhlaba ngezindawo ezishibhile ezingavamile, yanciphisa izimbangi ezifana ne-US ne-Australia. Ngeminyaka yawo-2000, izimayini zaseNtshonalanga—ezingakwazi ukuncintisana—zivalwa, zishiya i-China njengomnikezeli omkhulu wodwa.

2. Ukuhlanganisa Okuqondile Nezibonelelo
I-China yatshala imali eningi ekucwengeni nasekukhiqizeni ama-magnetic technology. Izinkampani ezisekelwa uhulumeni ezifana ne-China Northern Rare Earth Group kanye ne-JL MAG manje sezihola ukukhiqizwa komhlaba wonke, zisekelwa uxhaso, ikhefu lentela, nemithetho exegayo yezemvelo.

3. Imikhawulo Yokuthekelisa kanye Nokuzuza Okubalulekile
Ngo-2010, i-China yehlisa amanani okuthunyelwa komhlaba okungavamile ngo-40%, okwenza amanani enyuka ngo-600–2,000%. Lesi sinyathelo sadalula ukuthembela komhlaba wonke ezintweni ezihlinzekwa yiShayina futhi sabonisa ukuzimisela kwayo ukusebenzisa izikhali ngesikhathi sezingxabano zezohwebo (isb., impi yokuhweba yase-US-China yango-2019).

 

Kungani Umhlaba Uncike EShayina

1. Ukuncintisana Kwezindleko
Izindleko eziphansi zabasebenzi baseShayina, amandla axhasiwe, kanye nokwengamela okuncane kwemvelo kwenza odonsa bayo bashibhe ngo-30-50% kunalabo abakhiqizwa kwezinye izindawo.

2. Umphetho Wezobuchwepheshe
Amafemu aseShayina abusa amalungelo obunikazi okukhiqiza uzibuthe osebenza kahle kakhulu, okuhlanganisa namasu okunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwe-dysprosium (isici esibucayi, esiyivelakancane).

3. Isikali Sengqalasizinda
Iketanga laseShayina elivela ezimayini kuya ekuhlanganiseni kazibuthe—lihlanganiswe ngokugcwele. Izizwe zaseNtshonalanga azinawo amandla alinganayo okucwenga nokucubungula.

 

Izingozi ze-Geopolitical kanye Nezingxabano Zomhlaba

I-monopoly yaseChina ibeka izingozi ezinkulu:

Ukuba sengozini kweSupply Chain:Ukuvinjelwa kokuthekelisa okukodwa kungakhubaza i-EV yomhlaba wonke kanye nemikhakha yamandla avuselelekayo.

Ukukhathazeka Kwezokuphepha Kuzwelonke:Izinhlelo zokuvikela ezithuthukile zase-US kanye ne-EU zithembele kozibuthe baseShayina.

Imigomo Yesimo Sezulu Esengozini:Izinhloso ze-Net-zero zidinga ukukhiqizwa kukazibuthe we-NdFeB okuphindwe kane ngo-2050-inselele uma ukunikezwa kuhlala kumaphakathi.

I-Case in Point:Ngo-2021, ukumiswa kwesikhashana kokuthekelisa kweChina e-US ngesikhathi sokuxoxisana kwabambezeleka ukukhiqizwa kweCybertruck kaTesla, okugqamisa ubuthakathaka bokuthengiswa komhlaba wonke.

 

Izimpendulo Zomhlaba Wonke: Ukuphula I-China's Grip

Amazwe nezinkampani zizama ukuhlukanisa izinsiza:

1. Ukuvuselela izimayini zaseNtshonalanga

I-US iphinde yavula imayini yayo yomhlaba eyi-Mountain Pass eyivelakancane (manje isihlinzeka ngo-15% wesidingo somhlaba wonke).

I-Lynas Rare Earths yase-Australia yakha indawo yokucubungula yaseMalaysia ukuze idlule ukulawulwa kwamaShayina.

2. Ukugaywa kabusha kanye nokufaka endaweni
Izinkampani ezifanaI-HyProMag (UK)futhiI-Urban Mining Co. (US)khipha i-neodymium ku-e-waste.

Ucwaningo ngozibuthe be-ferrite kanye nemiklamo ye-NdFeB engenayo i-dysprosium ihlose ukunciphisa ukuncika okungavamile emhlabeni.

3. Imifelandawonye Yamasu
II-EU Critical Raw Materials Alliancekanye ne-USUmthetho Wokukhiqiza Kwezokuvikelaukubeka phambili ukukhiqizwa kazibuthe wasekhaya.

I-Japan, umthengi omkhulu we-NdFeB, utshala imali engu-$100M minyaka yonke ekusetshenzisweni kabusha kwezobuchwepheshe kanye namaphrojekthi omhlaba ayivelakancane ase-Afrika.

 

China's Countermove: Cementing Control

I-China ayimile. Amasu akamuva afaka:

Amandla Okuhlanganisa:Ukuhlanganisa amafemu kahulumeni ayivelakancane abe "ama-super-giants" ukuze ulawule amanani entengo.

Izilawuli Zokuthekelisa:Idinga amalayisense okuthunyelwa kukazibuthe kusukela ngo-2023, ifanekisela incwadi yayo yokudlala eyivelakancane.

Ukunwetshwa kwebhande nomgwaqo:Ukuthola amalungelo ezimayini e-Afrika (isb., Burundi) ukukhiya izimpahla ezizayo.

 

Izindleko Zemvelo Zokubusa

Ukubusa kweChina kuza ngentengo ekhuphukayo yezemvelo:

Imfucuza Enobuthi:Ukucwenga okungavamile komhlaba kukhiqiza udaka olukhipha imisebe, olungcolisa amanzi kanye namapulazi.

I-Carbon Footprint:Ukucwenga kwe-China okunamandla amalahle kukhipha i-CO2 ngokuphindwe ka-3 kunezindlela ezihlanzekile ezisetshenziswa kwenye indawo.

Lezi zinkinga zigqugquzele imibhikisho yasekhaya kanye nemithetho eqinile (kodwa ephoqelelwe ngokungalingani) yezemvelo.

 

Indlela Engaphambili: Ikusasa Eliqhekekile?
Isimo somhlaba esingajwayelekile sishintshela emaqenjini amabili aqhudelanayo:

I-China-Centric Supply Chains:Kuyathengeka, kuyakaleka, kodwa kuyingozi ngokwepolitiki.

I-Western "Shoring-Friend":Ilungile, iqinile, kodwa iyabiza futhi inensa ukukala.

Ezimbonini ezifana nama-EV kanye nezinto ezivuselelekayo, ukuthola izinto ezimbili kungase kube yinjwayelo—kodwa kuphela uma amazwe aseNtshonalanga esheshisa ukutshalwa kwezimali ekucwengisweni, ekusetshenzisweni kabusha, nasekuqeqesheni abasebenzi.

 

Isiphetho: Amandla, Ipolitiki, kanye Noguquko Oluhlaza
Ukubusa kweShayina ekukhiqizeni uzibuthe we-neodymium kugcizelela indida yenguquko eluhlaza: ubuchwepheshe obenzelwe ukusindisa iplanethi buthembele ochungechungeni lokuhlinzeka olugcwele ubungozi bezwe kanye nemvelo. Ukunqamula lokhu kubusa kudinga ukubambisana, ukusungula izinto ezintsha, kanye nokuzimisela ukukhokha iprimiyamu ukuze kusimame.

Njengoba umhlaba ugijimela ekufakeni ugesi, impi phezu kozibuthe be-NdFeB ngeke ilolonge izimboni kuphela kodwa ibhalansi yamandla omhlaba.