Ulawulo lwaseTshayina kwiMveliso yeMagnet yeNeodymium: Ukunika amandla ikamva, ukuBumba iiDynamics zeHlabathi.

Ukusuka kwii-smartphones kunye neenqwelo zombane (EVs) ukuya kwiiinjini zomoya kunye neerobhothi eziphambili, imagnethi ye-neodymium (NdFeB) ingamandla angabonakaliyo aqhuba inguqu yeteknoloji yanamhlanje. Ezi magnethi zisisigxina zomelele, zenziwe ngezinto ezinqabileyo zomhlaba ezifana neodymium, praseodymium, kunye nedysprosium, zibalulekile kumandla ohlaza kunye namashishini aphezulu. Nangona kunjalo, isizwe esinye silawula kakhulu imveliso yabo:eTshayina.

Le bhlog ingena kwindlela i-China eye yalawula ngayo imveliso yemagnethi ye-neodymium, iimpembelelo ze-geopolitical kunye nezoqoqosho kolu lawulo lodwa, kunye nokuba kuthetha ukuthini ukutyhala kwihlabathi jikelele ekuzinzeni.

 

I-China's Stranglehold kwi-NdFeB Supply Chain

I-China ithatha ixesha elingaphezulu90%yemigodi yomhlaba enqabileyo kwihlabathi jikelele, i-85% yokucokisa okunqabileyo komhlaba, kunye ne-92% yemveliso yemagnethi ye-neodymium. Olu hlanganiso oluthe nkqo lunika ulawulo olungenakuthelekiswa nanto kwisixhobo esibalulekileyo:

Izithuthi zoMbane:Injini nganye ye-EV isebenzisa i-1–2 kg yemagnethi ye-NdFeB.

Amandla omoya:Iturbine enye ye-3MW ifuna i-600 kg yezi magnethi.

Iinkqubo zoKhuselo:Iinkqubo zesikhokelo, iidrone, kunye neradar zixhomekeke ekuchanekeni kwazo.

Ngelixa iidiphozithi zezinto ezinqabileyo zomhlaba zikhona e-US, e-Australia, naseMyanmar, ukongamela kwe-China akusuki kwi-geology kuphela kodwa kumashumi eminyaka yokwenziwa komgaqo-nkqubo ocwangcisiweyo notyalo-mali kushishino.

 

Indlela iTshayina eyakha ngayo iMonopoly yayo

1. Incwadi yokudlala yee-1990s: “Ukulahla” ukuThatha iiMarike
Kwiminyaka yoo-1990, i-China yakhukulisa iimarike zehlabathi ngexabiso eliphantsi elinqabileyo lomhlaba, linciphisa abakhuphisana njenge-US ne-Australia. Ngeminyaka yama-2000, imigodi yaseNtshona-engakwazi ukukhuphisana-yavala, ishiya i-China njengomthengisi omkhulu kuphela.

2. Ukudityaniswa okuthe nkqo kunye neeNkxaso-mali
I-China ityale imali eninzi ekusulungeni nasekuveliseni itekhnoloji yemagnethi. Iinkampani ezixhaswa ngurhulumente ezifana neChina Northern Rare Earth Group kunye ne-JL MAG ngoku zikhokela imveliso yehlabathi, ixhaswa ngenkxaso-mali, ikhefu lerhafu, kunye nemimiselo yokusingqongileyo ephantsi.

3. IZithintelo zokuThunyelelwa kwamanye amazwe kunye neNyuvesi yoBuchule
Ngo-2010, i-China yanciphisa izabelo ezinqabileyo zokuthumela ngaphandle komhlaba nge-40%, ibangele amaxabiso onyuke nge-600-2,000%. Eli nyathelo libhentsise ukuthembela kwehlabathi kunikezelo lwaseTshayina kwaye labonisa ukukulungela kwayo ukusebenzisa izixhobo ngexesha leengxabano zorhwebo (umzekelo, imfazwe yorhwebo yase-US-China yowama-2019).

 

Kutheni ihlabathi lixhomekeke eTshayina

1. Ukhuphiswano lweendleko
Iindleko eziphantsi zabasebenzi baseTshayina, amandla axhaswayo, kunye nokongamela kokusingqongileyo okuncinci kwenza iimagnethi zayo zibe ngama-30–50% asezantsi kunezo ziveliswa kwenye indawo.

2. Umda wezobuGcisa
Iifemu zaseTshayina zongamela amalungelo awodwa omenzi wechiza osebenza kakhulu xa kusenziwa umazibuthe, kuquka neendlela zokunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwe-dysprosium (into ebalulekileyo, enqabileyo).

3. Isikali seziseko zophuhliso
Ikhonkco lonikezelo lomhlaba elinqabileyo laseTshayina-ukusuka kwimigodi ukuya kwindibano yemagnethi-ihlanganiswe ngokupheleleyo. Amazwe aseNtshona aswele ukusulungekiswa nokusetyenzwa okulinganayo.

 

Imingcipheko yeGeopolitical kunye neGlobal Tension

I-monopoly yaseTshayina ibeka umngcipheko omkhulu:

Umngcipheko wekhonkco lonikezelo:Isithintelo esisodwa sokuthumela ngaphandle sinokukhubaza i-EV yehlabathi kunye necandelo lamandla ahlaziyekayo.

IiNgxaki zoKhuseleko lweSizwe:Iinkqubo zokhuselo zase-US kunye ne-EU zixhomekeke kwiimagnethi zaseTshayina.

Iinjongo zeMozulu eziseMngciphekweni:Iithagethi ze-Net-zero zifuna ukuveliswa kwemagnethi ye-NdFeB ngokuphindwe kane ngo-2050-umngeni ukuba unikezelo luhlala luphakathi.

Imeko kwindawo:Ngo-2021, ukumisa okwethutyana ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kweTshayina e-US ngexesha lozakuzo kulibazisa imveliso kaTesla yeCybertruck, iqaqambisa ubuthathaka bobonelelo lwehlabathi.

 

Iimpendulo zehlabathi: Ukuqhawula i-China's Grip

Amazwe kunye neenkampani zizama ukufumana izinto ezahlukeneyo:

1. Ukuvuselela iMigodi yaseNtshona

I-US iphinde yavula umgodi wayo weMountain Pass onqabileyo (ngoku ubonelela nge-15% yemfuno yehlabathi).

I-Lynas Rare Earths yaseOstreliya yakha umzi-mveliso waseMalaysia ukuze idlule kulawulo lwaseTshayina.

2. Ukurisayikilishwa kunye nokuFakwa endaweni
Iinkampani ezifanaIHyProMag (UK)kwayeUrban Mining Co. (US)kukhupha i-neodymium kwinkunkuma ye-e.

Uphando kwiimagnethi zeferrite kunye ne-dysprosium-free NdFeB uyilo lujolise ekunciphiseni ukuxhomekeka komhlaba okunqabileyo.

3. IiMdibaniso zoBuchule
II-EU Critical Materials Alliancekunye ne-USUMthetho weMveliso yoKhuselobeka phambili imveliso yemagnethi yasekhaya.

IJapan, umthengi omkhulu we-NdFeB, utyala imali eyi-100 yezigidi zeerandi ngonyaka kwi-teknoloji yokuphinda isetyenziswe kunye neeprojekthi ezinqabileyo zomhlaba.

 

I-Countermove yaseTshayina: Ukulawulwa kwesamente

I-China ayimile. Izicwangciso zakutsha nje ziquka:

Amandla okudibanisa:Ukudibanisa iifemu zikarhulumente ezinqabileyo zibe “ziingxilimbela ezinkulu” ukulawula amaxabiso.

Ulawulo Lokuthumela ngaphandle:Ifuna iilayisenisi zokuthumela ngaphandle umazibuthe ukusukela ngo-2023, ebonisa incwadi yakhe yokudlala enqabileyo.

Ibhanti kunye noKwandiswa kweNdlela:Ukukhusela amalungelo okusebenza kwemigodi e-Afrika (umzekelo, eBurundi) ukutshixeka kwizibonelelo zexesha elizayo.

 

Iindleko zokusiNgqongileyo zoLawulo

Ukongamela kweTshayina kuza ngexabiso elinyukayo le-ikholoji:

Inkunkuma enetyhefu:Ukucokiswa komhlaba okunqabileyo kuvelisa udaka oluqhuma ngemitha, olungcolisa amanzi nomhlaba wokufama.

Imibhalo yenyawo yekhabhoni:Ukusulungekiswa kombane wamalahle eTshayina kukhupha i-CO2 eyi-3x ngaphezulu kuneendlela zokucoca ezisetyenziswa kwenye indawo.

Le miba ikhuthaze uqhanqalazo lwasekhaya kunye nemithetho engqongqo (kodwa enganyanzeliswanga) ngokusingqongileyo.

 

Indlela Engaphambili: Ngaba Ikamva Eliqhekekileyo?
Imbonakalo yomhlaba enqabileyo yehlabathi iguqukela kwiibloko ezimbini ezikhuphisanayo:

iChina-Centric Supply Chains:Iyafikeleleka, iyakaleka, kodwa iyingozi kwezopolitiko.

ENtshona "Ukubonisa Abahlobo":Ilungile, yomelele, kodwa iyabiza kwaye iyacotha kwisikali.

Kumashishini afana nee-EV kunye nezinto ezivuselelwayo, ukufunwa kabini kunokuba yinto eqhelekileyo-kodwa kuphela ukuba amazwe aseNtshona akhawulezisa utyalo-mali ekusulungekiseni, ekusetyenzisweni ngokutsha, nasekuqeqesheni abasebenzi.

 

Isiphelo: Amandla, ezoPolitiko, kunye neNguquko yoHlaza
Ukongamela kweTshayina kwimveliso yemagnethi ye-neodymium igxininisa umbhida wohlaziyo oluhlaza: ubugcisa obenzelwe ukusindisa umhlaba buxhomekeke kwikhonkco lokubonelela eligcwele imingcipheko yezelizwe kunye nemekobume. Ukophula olu lawulo olulodwa kufuna intsebenziswano, ukusungula izinto ezintsha, kunye nokuzimisela ukuhlawula iprimiyamu yokuzinza.

Njengoko ilizwe libaleka lisingise ekufakeni umbane, umlo ongaphaya kweemagnethi ze-NdFeB awusayi kubumba nje amashishini kodwa ulungelelwaniso lwamandla ehlabathi.