Ulawulo lweTshayina kwiMveliso yeMagnethi yeNeodymium: Ukunika Amandla iKamva, Ukubumba iDynamics yeHlabathi

Ukususela kwiifowuni eziphathwayo kunye nezithuthi zombane (ii-EV) ukuya kwiiturbine zomoya kunye neerobhothi eziphambili, iimagnethi ze-neodymium (i-NdFeB) ngamandla angabonakaliyo aqhuba utshintsho lwetekhnoloji yanamhlanje. Ezi magnethi ziqinileyo ezihlala zihleli, ezenziwe ngezinto ezinqabileyo zomhlaba ezifana neodymium, praseodymium, kunye ne-dysprosium, ziyimfuneko kumandla aluhlaza kunye namashishini ezobuchwepheshe obuphezulu. Sekunjalo, kukho ilizwe elilawula imveliso yazo ngamandla amakhulu:iTshayina.

Le bhlog ijonga indlela iTshayina eyaqala ngayo ukulawula imveliso yemagnethi ye-neodymium, impembelelo ye-geopolitical kunye nezoqoqosho zale monopoly, kunye nentsingiselo yayo ekutyhaleleni uzinzo kwihlabathi liphela.

 

Ukuxinana kweTshayina kwiNdFeB Supply Chain

I-China ibala ngaphezulu90%ukwembiwa komhlaba onqabileyo kwihlabathi liphela, i-85% yokucocwa komhlaba onqabileyo, kunye ne-92% yemveliso yemagnethi ye-neodymium. Olu manyano oluthe nkqo luyinika ulawulo olungenakuthelekiswa nanto phezu kwesixhobo esibalulekileyo:

Izithuthi zoMbane:Injini nganye ye-EV isebenzisa iimagnethi ze-NdFeB eziyi-1–2 kg.

Amandla oMoya:I-turbine enye ye-3MW ifuna i-600 kg yale magnethi.

Iinkqubo zoKhuselo:Iinkqubo zokhokelo, iidrone, kunye neradar zixhomekeke ekuchanekeni kwazo.

Nangona kukho iintsalela zezinto ezinqabileyo zomhlaba eMelika, eOstreliya naseMyanmar, ulawulo lweTshayina aluveli kwijoloji kuphela kodwa luvela kwiminyaka emininzi yokwenziwa kwemigaqo-nkqubo kunye notyalo-mali kwimizi-mveliso.

 

Indlela iTshayina eyakha ngayo iMonopoly yayo

1. Incwadi Yokudlala Yama-1990: “Ukulahla” ukuze Ubambe Iimarike
Kwiminyaka yoo-1990, iTshayina yazalisa iimarike zehlabathi ngeentlobo ze-rare earths ezingabizi kakhulu, yanciphisa abakhuphisana nabo abanjengo-US ne-Australia. Kwiminyaka yoo-2000, iimigodi zaseNtshona—ezingenakukwazi ukukhuphisana—zavalwa, nto leyo eyashiya iTshayina njengomthengisi omkhulu kuphela.

2. Ukuhlanganiswa okuthe nkqo kunye neenkxaso-mali
I-China ityale imali eninzi kubuchwepheshe bokucoca nokuvelisa izinto ezitsala amandla. Iinkampani ezixhaswa ngurhulumente ezifana ne-China Northern Rare Earth Group kunye ne-JL MAG ngoku zikhokela imveliso yehlabathi, zixhaswa zizibonelelo, izaphulelo zerhafu, kunye nemithetho yokusingqongileyo eyekelelayo.

3. Imiqathango yokuthumela ngaphandle kunye neNzuzo eCwangcisiweyo
Ngowama-2010, iTshayina yehlisa ii-quota zokuthumela ngaphandle izinto ezinqabileyo ngama-40%, nto leyo eyabangela ukuba amaxabiso anyuke ngama-600–2,000%. Le ntshukumo yatyhila ukuthembela kwehlabathi kwizinto zaseTshayina kwaye yabonisa ukuzimisela kwayo ukusebenzisa izixhobo ngexesha leengxabano zorhwebo (umz., imfazwe yorhwebo phakathi kwe-US ne-China ka-2019).

 

Kutheni Ihlabathi Lixhomekeke KwiTshayina

1. Ukhuphiswano lweendleko
Iindleko eziphantsi zabasebenzi baseTshayina, amandla axhaswayo, kunye nokujonga okuncinci okusingqongileyo kwenza iimagnethi zayo zibize ngexabiso eliphantsi ngama-30-50% kunezo zenziwe kwezinye iindawo.

2. Umda weTekhnoloji
Iinkampani zaseTshayina zilawula amalungelo omenzi wemagnethi okwenziwa ngokuphezulu, kuquka neendlela zokunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwe-dysprosium (into ebalulekileyo nenqabileyo).

3. Isikali seZiseko zoPhuhliso
Uthungelwano lokubonelela ngomhlaba onqabileyo lwaseTshayina—ukusuka kwezemigodi ukuya ekuhlanganiseni imagnethi—ludityaniswe ngokupheleleyo. Amazwe aseNtshona awanawo amandla okucoca nokulungisa alinganayo.

 

Iingozi zezelizwe kunye noxinzelelo lwehlabathi

Ukuzimela kweTshayina kubeka emngciphekweni omkhulu:

Ubuthathaka beCandelo loNikezelo:Ukuvalwa okukodwa kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunokuphazamisa amacandelo e-EV kwihlabathi liphela kunye namacandelo amandla avuselelekayo.

Iingxaki zoKhuseleko lweSizwe:Iinkqubo zokhuselo eziphambili zase-US nase-EU zixhomekeke kwiimagnethi zaseTshayina.

Iinjongo zeMozulu ezisengozini:Iithagethi ze-Net-zero zifuna ukuveliswa kwemagnethi ye-NdFeB okuphindwe kane ngo-2050—umngeni ukuba unikezelo luhlala lukwindawo enye.

Ingongoma yetyala:Ngowama-2021, ukumiswa okwethutyana kokuthunyelwa kwe-US yiTshayina ngexesha lengxabano yezopolitiko kwalibazisa ukuveliswa kweTesla Cybertruck, nto leyo eyayibonisa ubuthathaka beenkqubo zokuhambisa izinto kwihlabathi liphela.

 

Iimpendulo zehlabathi: Ukwaphula i-China

Amazwe kunye neenkampani zizama iindlela ezahlukeneyo zokubonelela ngeenkonzo:

1. Ukuvuselelwa kweMigodi yaseNtshona

I-US iphinde yavula kwakhona umgodi wayo we-Mountain Pass onqabileyo (ngoku obonelela nge-15% yemfuno yehlabathi).

I-Lynas Rare Earths yase-Australia yakha isityalo sokucubungula saseMalaysia ukuze sidlule ulawulo lwaseTshayina.

2. Ukuphinda kusetyenziswe kunye nokutshintsha
Iinkampani ezifanaI-HyProMag (e-UK)kwayeI-Urban Mining Co. (e-US)khupha i-neodymium kwi-e-waste.

Uphando malunga neemagnethi ze-ferrite kunye noyilo lwe-NdFeB olungena-dysprosium lujolise ekunciphiseni ukuxhomekeka komhlaba onqabileyo.

3. Amaqhina oBuchule
II-EU Critical Raw Materials Alliancekunye ne-USUMthetho weMveliso yoKhuseloukubeka phambili imveliso yemagnethi yasekhaya.

IJapan, umthengi omkhulu weNdFeB, ityala imali eyi-$100M minyaka le kubuchwepheshe bokuphinda usebenzise izinto ezisetyenzisiweyo kunye neeprojekthi ze-rare earth zaseAfrika.

 

Utshintsho oluchasene neTshayina: Ulawulo lwesamente

I-China ayimi ndawonye. Amaqhinga akutshanje aquka:

Amandla okudibanisa:Ukudibanisa iifemu ze-rare-earth eziphantsi kukarhulumente zibe “zii-super-giants” ukulawula amaxabiso.

Ulawulo lokuthumela ngaphandle:Ifuna iilayisenisi zokuthumela ngaphandle iimagnethi ukusukela ngo-2023, nto leyo efana nencwadi yayo yokudlala engaqhelekanga.

Ukwandiswa kweBelt kunye neendlela:Ukuqinisekisa amalungelo okumba eAfrika (umz., eBurundi) ukuze kugcinwe izinto ezifunekayo kwixesha elizayo.

 

Iindleko Zokulawula Kwindalo Esingqongileyo

Ulawulo lweTshayina luza ngexabiso eliphezulu kakhulu kwindalo:

Inkunkuma Enobuthi:Ukucoca umhlaba ongaqhelekanga kuvelisa udaka olunemitha ye-radioactive, olungcolisa amanzi kunye nomhlaba weefama.

Imibhalo yenyawo yekhabhoni:Ukucoca okwenziwa ngamalahle eTshayina kukhupha i-CO2 engaphezulu ngokuphindwe kathathu kuneendlela zokucoca ezisetyenziswa kwezinye iindawo.

Ezi ngxaki zibangele imibhikisho yasekhaya kunye nemithetho engqongqo (kodwa enganyanzeliswayo ngokulinganayo) yokusingqongileyo.

 

Indlela Engaphambili: Ikamva Eliqhekekileyo?
Imeko yomhlaba onqabileyo kwihlabathi liphela itshintshela kwiibloko ezimbini ezikhuphisanayo:

Iikhonkco zoNikezelo phakathi kweTshayina neZiko:Iyafikeleleka, iyakwazi ukwandiswa, kodwa inobungozi kwezopolitiko.

"Ukuthanda Abahlobo" baseNtshona:Ifanelekile, iyasebenza, kodwa ibiza kakhulu kwaye icotha kakhulu xa isetyenziswa.

Kwimizi-mveliso efana nee-EV kunye ne-renewables, ukuthengwa kwezinto ezimbini kunokuba yinto eqhelekileyo—kodwa kuphela ukuba amazwe aseNtshona akhawulezisa utyalo-mali ekucoceni, ekuphindeni kusetyenziswe izinto ezintsha, kunye noqeqesho lwabasebenzi.

 

Isiphelo: Amandla, Ezopolitiko, kunye noTshintsho oluHlaza
Ukulawula kweTshayina kwimveliso yemagnethi ye-neodymium kugxininisa into engaqhelekanga yoguquko oluluhlaza: ubuchwepheshe obujoliswe ekusindiseni iplanethi buxhomekeke kwikhonkco lokubonelela elizaliswe ziingozi zejografi kunye nokusingqongileyo. Ukwaphula olu lawulo kufuna intsebenziswano, ubuchule, kunye nokuzimisela ukuhlawula iprimiyamu ukuze kubekho uzinzo.

Njengoko ihlabathi libaleka ukuya ekufakweni kombane, idabi malunga neemagnethi zeNdFeB aliyi kuyila amashishini kuphela kodwa liza kuyila ulungelelwaniso lwamandla ehlabathi.